The potentially stormy weather situation coming together in the next two days is firming up.
A jarring shift in mid and late week Chicago temps is in our future. Wednesday’s unseasonably mild low 50s will be the warmest here this year and warmest weather we’ve experienced since Christmas Day’s 55-degree high. That is likely to yield to single digit temps by late Thursday night and Friday morning. The transition Thursday could grow quite messy with modeling currently suggesting anything from a wintry mix which goes over to some accumulating snow to a full blown winter snowstorm over at least sections of the metro area.
Anyone planning to travel or other potentially weather sensitive activities in the Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday evening time frame here in the Chicago area and/or in the region surrounding should monitor the updates.
This is the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) product which produced snow probabilities generated by averaging a range of computer forecast snowfall predictions. This “reconciled” forecast approach has produced excellent forecasts of past storms. The graphic above depicts the probability of 4″ or more of snow over the 72 hour period concluding at 6pm CST Thursday evening. NOTE: Snow may continue to fall beyond that time–so additional accumulation might occur extending into Thursday night.
There are no warnings or watches are out for Chicago just yet–but that’s likely to change in the coming day. And while Wednesday’s daytime “warmth” seems a good bet, so too does a transition to more wintry weather by Thursday if current trends continue.
Full forecast details and more at the WGN Weather Center blog
Some preliminary guidance products which produce estimates of potential snowfall ranges from a “blend” or “combination” of models puts the chances (centered on Chicago) of 2″ or more of snow by 6 p.m. Thursday evening at 82%; of 4″ at 72% and of 8″ a 41%. Those numbers could change with the arrival of newer data. Current guidance also puts the chance of icing at 30% for at least a portion of the in Chicago metro area. These are preliminary estimates. Expect them to firm up in coming days as the system approaches.